2012: 2011 Property-Casualty Loss Reserves - Another Year of Releases, No Clear Trends



Price : $1,750.00



In this study, Conning analyzes Schedule P data from aggregated industry statutory statements, as well as key industry segments, and presents its findings along with historical industry reserve analyses, accident-year results, 2011 reserve position, and an analysis of losses for individual lines of business. Conning’s annual study has become a standard benchmarking tool for insurers and stakeholders. Overall, the industry continues to appear to have sufficient reserves, with a modest degree of safety, under assumptions that claims settlement patterns will continue apace. However, older years continue to develop adversely. More significantly, some adverse development in the most recent calendar year is providing a hint that beneficial trends may be turning.





1. Introduction












2. Executive Summary












3. Industry Overview—Common Themes





  • Shrinking, but Surprisingly Persistent, Reserve Redundancy Based on Review of Selected Schedule P Lines


  • 2011 Calendar-Year/Accident-Year Reconciliation


  • Our Estimates of Overall Reserve Adequacy


  • These Indications Include Adjustments to Consider Tail Factors and Older-Year Reserves


  • Summary




4. Private Passenger Auto Liability/Medical





  • Reserve Strength Expanding as Premium Growth Resumes


  • 2011 Calendar-Year/Accident-Year Reconciliation


  • Calendar-Year and Accident-Year Loss Ratio Gap Seen


  • Claim Counts and Severity


  • Accident-Year Estimates Close to Industry Reported


  • Summary




5. Homeowners/Farmowners





  • Reserves Appear Deficient, but Significant Catastrophe Activity May Distort Indications


  • Past Premium Growth Funded Reserve Strength and Releases


  • 2011 Calendar-Year/Accident-Year Reconciliation


  • General Reserve Releases Beginning in 2003


  • Loss Development Influenced by Catastrophes


  • Claim Counts and Severity


  • Insurers’ Reported Results Similar to Estimates


  • Summary




6. Workers’ Compensation





  • In Spite of Strengthening in 2009-2011, Reserves Appear Mildly Deficient, with Continuing Uncertainty in the Longer-Tailed Portion of the Reserves


  • Premium Growth Funded Past Reserve Strengthening


  • 2011 Calendar-Year/Accident-Year Reconciliation


  • Reserve Releases in 2007-2008, Strengthening in 2009-2011


  • Tail Loss Development


  • Paid Loss Acceleration


  • Claim Counts and Severity


  • Reserve Positions by Accident Year Indicate a Turning Point


  • Summary




7. Commercial Multiperil





  • Reserve Developments Suggest Increased Deficiency, Possibly Influenced by Volatility from Catastrophe Experience


  • 2011 Calendar-Year/Accident-Year Reconciliation


  • Calendar-Year Results Reflect Net Reserve Releases


  • Claim Counts and Severity


  • Accident-Year Reported Reserves Show Modest Deficiency


  • Summary




8. Other Liability





  • Indications of Some Redundancy in Occurrence Forms and Emerging Deficiency in Claims-Made


  • 2011 Calendar-Year/Accident-Year Reconciliation


  • Tail Loss Development—Occurrence Forms


  • Claim Counts and Severity


  • Accident-Year Estimates


  • Summary




9. Commercial Auto/Truck Liability/Medical







  • Modest Redundancies Continue in Spite of Releases


  • 2011 Calendar-Year/Accident-Year Reconciliation


  • Reserve Releases Continue the Trend Since 2005


  • Claim Counts and Severity


  • Estimated Results Below Carried


  • Summary




10. Medical Professional Liability





  • Continued and Expanding Picture of Redundancy—Will Claim Frequency Reductions Continue?


  • 2011 Calendar-Year/Accident-Year Reconciliation


  • Claim Counts and Severity


  • Estimates Are Lower in Most Accident Years


  • Summary




11. Asbestos & Environmental





  • Development of the Survival Ratio


  • Summary




Appendices

A. Methodology
B. Glossary
C. Additional Data

Introduction

Our view of the property-casualty insurance industry reserve position is that it has deteriorated slightly in 2011, when compared to our previous annual analyses. On an overall basis, the industry released in excess of $11 billion in reserves in 2011 ($11.4 billion in the preliminary data used for this analysis). Excluding reserve strengthening in the financial and mortgage guaranty lines ($1.1 billion), the industry released more than $12.5 billion in reserves in covered lines in 2011 from years 2010 and prior, representing almost 2% of reserves carried in the prior year.

Overall, the industry continues to appear to have sufficient reserves, with a modest degree of safety, under assumptions that claims settlement patterns will continue apace. However, older years continue to develop adversely. More significantly, some adverse development in the most recent calendar year is providing a hint that beneficial trends may be turning.

Net premiums within the industry rose slightly in 2011, at least with respect to the data included in our review—a result of modest rate-firming and modestly improving (nominal) economic conditions. Premium growth had been the primary source of funds for reserve strengthening, and that ended in the softening market and the softening economic conditions. At the same time, incurred losses grew in 2011 over 2010, on both a calendar-year basis and an accident-year basis. This continues a trend seen since 2006, with an interruption by a spike in losses in 2008. Even allowing that 2011 was a year with significant catastrophe losses, the accident-year loss ratio in 2011 has reached a level not seen since 2002.

The inadequate position of the “over ten year” reserves has moderated in this most recent year, but will continue to pressure those companies with significant legacy reserves, compared to newer entrants. If history is a guide, this increasing competitive challenge once again may lead to a reversal of these favorable trends in reserve strengthening.